Bologna, 2025
European International Association, Pan European Conference
The Taiwan Dilemma: Bargaining, Brinkmanship, and the Future of Indo-Pacific Stability
Abstract:
Taiwan occupies a pivotal position in the strategic landscape of the Indo-Pacific. As tensions escalate between the United States and China, the “Taiwan issue” has become a flashpoint with profound implications for regional and global stability. This paper explores whether a US-China war over Taiwan is plausible by applying bargaining theory to model the strategic interactions between the two powers. By conceptualizing Taiwan as both a symbolic and strategic asset, the paper identifies key thresholds of credibility, commitment, and miscalculation that could push the situation toward conflict or cooperation. Through formal modeling and qualitative analysis, it demonstrates how rational actors, despite preferring peaceful outcomes, may become entrapped in a spiral of escalation due to perceived shifts in power or domestic political pressures. The findings contribute to a deeper understanding of strategic decision-making in a fragmented regional order and the conditions under which great-power war becomes more likely.