Sydney, 2025
Oceanic Conference on International Studies
Spooky Action in Diplomacy: A Quantum Lens for Decision-Making in International Relations
Abstract:
Classical decision theories such as rational choice and expected utility theory have long provided the foundation for understanding the decision-making processes of states and world leaders. However, these models often struggle to explain inconsistent, context-sensitive, or seemingly irrational choices in international relations (IR). Quantum Decision Theory (QDT) offers an innovative approach to analysing decision-making in IR, capturing the complexity and ambiguity inherent in global politics.
Inspired by quantum mechanics, QDT allows decision-makers to exist in a superposition of preferences, accommodating uncertainty, cognitive biases, and the contextual framing of information. Unlike classical theories, QDT incorporates interference effects, non-commutative decision orders, and entangled preferences, providing deeper insight into phenomena such as policy reversals, strategic ambiguity, and dynamic state interests.
QDT explains anomalies that defy classical predictions, such as sudden shifts in alliances and contradictory diplomatic behaviour. Its interdisciplinary potential can enrich fields like strategic studies, game theory, and behavioural IR. By integrating insights from quantum mechanics, psychology, and decision theory, QDT challenges traditional IR scholarship and enhances our understanding of international decision-making. This new approach suggests pathways for future research and the development of quantum-inspired methodologies to address pressing questions in world politics.